# All Eyes on the Fed. June 16-17.
The first FOMC meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh is three days away. This is the meeting that includes the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot.
The market expects rates to hold at 3.50%-3.75%. No surprise there.
The surprise would be in the dots. If any FOMC members project rates above 4.0% by year-end, the hawkish narrative accelerates. The May jobs blowout (172K vs 80K) and 4.2% CPI give hawks all the ammunition they need.
Positioning into the meeting: $TLT has been weak, reflecting higher rate expectations. $DXY (dollar index) has been firm. Growth stocks face headwinds if the rate path moves higher.
The SpaceX IPO euphoria may mask underlying macro risk. Once the IPO excitement fades, the Fed meeting becomes the next catalyst.
Reduce position sizes into the meeting. React to the statement and dot plot. Do not try to predict Warsh.
#FOMC #FederalReserve #InterestRates #DotPlot #MacroTrading
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